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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."